Speed UTV

Fullthrottleguy said:
You are making ALOT of assumptions that from my experience building companies and products just don't pan out.  An Accessories company does not have the same level engineering, permits, regulations, legal, and required overhead that a US based UTV manufacturer has. 

We won't know for a while, but I'll bet you a cold one in dunes that I am right. 

And @LOTD  thinks that Polaris and the Canned Ham partner company BRP (Canadian) have a lot of executive overhead and stupid people running the company... I think he would be surprised how lean they really are when you consider the volume those guys have to deal with. You actually need high powered over paid executives to get certain things external to the company done, like financial transactions, government regulators, banks, Investors, shareholders, and as sad as this is the Pedigree and Resume has to include MBA, 20 years CEO, CFO and or COO of multi Billion dollar company to get respect.  You and I might respect 40 years racing experience and took a Startup from 0 to $100m sales - that not mice-nuts to bankers at the level Speed wants to play at.

I am not saying there is not "fat" in those companies, there always is.  But, there is a lot to get done running a professional organization the Fiduciary responsibility alone means you hire $2,000 an hour accountants.   Outside the financial, sales marketing and of course Ops areas, I will bet the technical documentation the big three UTV makers supply to the dealers for each new car is literally 10 persons work for 6 months.  I have experience working with one of the major car companies and while their volumes are higher  all the same things are needed.  Supply chain is way more than Outsourcing the build to someone.  Managing components is a huge effort, just the supplier, the secondary alternative suppliers, all the part numbers and prices and changes to prints, instructions for replacement of components, its overwhelming

Fact matter ...

Accessory manufacturers have it easy - thats apples and oranges. This is near a $1B valuation company right away if RG does it right - thats huge scale.

Lets put it all in perspective ...  

CAN AM's parent company is a $6B company with 120,000+ employees  - 50% of the revenue comes from the US with over $700M coming from UTV sales in 2020 about $500M of that is the US .  the Industry is growing at a 5.5% CAGR so ... its getting bigger for everyone.

If Speed does 15,000 Cars in year 1  at and average of $35,000 per car (that may or may not be high thats'  $525M in sales  thats bigger than CAN AM's sales! Of course that top line revenue not profit.

Thats means out of the gate SPEED is Bigger the CAN AM Off Road ....

Let that soak in .... that would be amazing....

 BUT

You are not doing that scale with a handful of people ...  just training up the people to manage the outsourcing "right"  takes a couple years ... American industry already is facing Huge problems with this given Gen Z workers have average Tenures of 18 months compared to Millennial's and Boomers which are closer to 5-7 years.  We discuss this a lot in my CEO roundtable meetings, this is a huge problem for the country going forward.  They don't stay on the job long enough to learn how to be good at it and they like to move on and do "something else"

At Speed, There is only one RG and one Todd, and I don't see them hiring away top people from any of the good UTV companies, well at least its not in the industry rags or really talked about.  , Although I am certain RG know a few of those people having been "a consultant" and "accessory supplier" to them... and could get a few high level exec's to defect -  but this has to be done sooner rather tha  later - maybe he just does not have the funding or is too headstrong... I have no idea.

For RG noit hiring these people now is still outside looking in for them (and for me I admit)

Another telling fact is RG has said he thought he was gonna build 500 cars... and that would be a lot the first year ...He was surprised by the "success"

How you react to that success is telling as well.

An experienced  CEO of a company that ran other large org's when the "big numbers" hit would have built a team of industry experts to handle the growth  Just Like Elon Musk did ... Love or Hate Musk, the Man knows how to get Sh&t done... His hiring record pushed out some early people but he never missed a beat on GTM  (go to Market)  His model is a good one to follow 

I see a Bunch of "Joyner" like companies come and go - none have 1/10 the volume RG has already attracted. They all get it wrong, partially its just crap product, but mainly it's lack of support and infrastructure.  when you have 15,000 users out there you will get calls, warranty, issues, bad debt. law suits, etc.  

Its way more than just saying "anyone that disses' the company on social media or posts a picture of the bad door fit of crappy welds  gets their reservation number cancelled     or can never buy a car?  Can you see Can Am doing that??? No they would be sued, their CEO canned and all new management in place.    I have seen at least 50 Meme's of Canned Ham's Lawn darted  ... I have not heard BRP issue a statement they are hunting down the posters and barring them from buying cars.  This is just a crossing the Chasm from start up to professional org.

 I am sure RG is trying and confident, but given the failures of others before him and Todd, in companies  that had far more big company experience .. this is not as easy as you think it is ...

The deck is stacked against them.   His suppliers may be behind him, but they are business people and I do not believe he will make any money on at least the first years production  - no way.

He has a good flooring company helping with the cashflow on deposits  = but flooring costs money - if you have not dealt with that before think of it like paying that 3% credit card fee, bigger hit on the profit or lack of ...

Even successful start ups take years to break even.  If he ramps fast enough and has enough dry powder (working capital) to carry him through I can see a multiple $B cap in a few years... but he should have a good person doing the testing he is doing (lots of racers would it for free)  and he should be raising money - he is a good sales guy ....

Maybe he will raise a Ton of cash - and I hope he does - then Speed's future is secured.  I am not a smart person, but smart people tell me they "never" use their own money.  They say raise as much powder as they can when the brand is hot - the money is cheap, and you can always give it back if you don't need it,  but if you need it when you don't have it, it costs you lots of money...

Regarding Rivian

They are in fine shape .... they took down $10.7B in capital over the last 4 years YES 10.7 BILLION  = they got $2.5B  from Amazon, Ford and a consortium of 10 VC's and they pledged another $2B if the company needs it ... just last in October year.  They are burning cash with no product shipping (Like Robbie is) but they have lots of cash...

That scale is almost inconceivable compared to what SPEED has right now ....

They don't any sales for 3+ years  and they will be OK  - although the management will get "etch-a-sketched" before then  they are pretty safe not to "Tank" as you said. Some pretty smart people are not flushing 10B+ down the drain because a few orders got cancelled...

Don't get me wrong I have so much respect for the RG and TR - those guys are racers, businessmen and RG was always nice to me. But this is a Huge endeavor it's not rainbows and sunshine, more like blood letting before its all over ...
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All.

Of.

This.

Also: GD Gen Z...  Jesus fawk those kids piss me off.  Jump ship for somewhere else for $1 more, and while it's working right now when everyone is desperate, they'll eventually learn this isn't a recipe for your career if you spend 12 months at a job only to move to another.  20s into your 30s are your prime skill-building years. 

Fullthrottleguy said:
Like you, I like to dream in color, and yeah I want them to succeed if for no other selfish reasdon than to have a SPEED UTV...

Here is how I see it  .... Startups are often a "rag-tag" bunch of overachievers and you can point to a few success stories born just like that ...

There was this "fruit" company in Cupertino that started out in a garage by two guys,   that took off like a rocket ....they even flew a Pirate flag over their first building  and were competing against IBM , thats Apple's story ...

And the same thing could happen with Speed ,,,,But its not on that track

for 7 years I worked directly for SJ and while there are a lot of similarities and differences between him and RG or TR, one thing SJ knew was how to surround himself with smart people and people who knew what they were doing. And believe me you never said no when SJ called you to hire you He did not alway hire "suits" and in fact he tried that once and it did not work out, but he hired superstars  and while Apple had their ups ands downs .. innovative and great people got them to where they are now - the most valuable company in the world

I remember when SJ hired Tim  C and he was telling us about why he hired him - and that is a long story.  I worked on the switch to Intel with Tim, we have a 5 person steering team, and that experience taught me why he choose him. 

I guess for me I just don't see Speed building that team early enough to "win big"

I would like to believe RG and team could pull something like that off... If they want to they better getting going on that path 
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Biggest hard lesson smart people that become successful learn: you're not the smartest at everything, and even if you were, you need people to execute your dream or your dumbass will be trying to accomplish chit in the 23rd hour of your workday, and I guarantee you're not smart on 1 hour of sleep. :biggrin:    If you let your ego as the smart guy get in the way of that, you're selling yourself short and will fail eventually.  If they succeed and run off somewhere to compete with you, cool.  You did your job and you got production out of it while it lasted.   

 
NIKAL said:
Wow, no one bit! Yes this was an April fools joke, that clearly went flat on here. Good job guys! lol. 
 

It started with a text from a friend telling me he got his SpeedSXS water pump in his XX. He now has Speed axles and  water pump. I jokingly told him that the good news is he will now have a Speed UTV as Speed was buying Arctic Cat. I said keep it on the down low as one of the guys I know in the industry let me know, but it’s not final yet.  Because of my past history of knowing so many in off road racing and different Motorsports. he did not question it. 
 

I knew he would not keep it a secret. But not even two hours later in a group text another buddy of mine says have you guys heard Robby bought Arctic Cat! I died laughing as I could not believe it, and knew the other guy told them, and they were telling me. lol! 
 

So I thought maybe I could hook a few here into the fun, but your too smart. 
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Welllll...

Because of your previous posts, I did believe you. But my first thought was - if running Speed was going to be such a huge task for RG and TR, how are they going to handle juggling another company, are they going to merge the 2, are they going to use AC's factory to build Speed units, or are they going to keep them separate brands and vehicles, where did they get the money to buy AC, etc.

I'm glad it was a joke, I don't think they need any more on their plates right now.

It was a good joke, but your credibility worked against you this time!

:lol:

 
I knew RG was smart enough to not want what's left of Arctic Cat in total, but early on I did think it would have been better for the golf cart morons to sell the tooling/rights to the XX to Speed, as those schmucks(E-Z-Go)clearly have zero interest or understanding of the sport SxS business.

 
1HasBeen said:
I knew RG was smart enough to not want what's left of Arctic Cat in total, but early on I did think it would have been better for the golf cart morons to sell the tooling/rights to the XX to Speed, as those schmucks(E-Z-Go)clearly have zero interest or understanding of the sport SxS business.
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I agree! The XX is a good platform, it could be a good UTV for those who don't go to the sand. It's too bad about the company.

 
michael.gonzalez said:
Man, I can't wait until Rhino 660's are "vintage" and worth top dollar.
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Looking at the Covid pricing on the used market I think they have hit "vintage" pricing.   You can pick up a Rhino for $20K and then go pick up a 1999 Ford Diesel for $70K. You will be set!   LOL!   

 
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Lord of the Dunes said:
I agree! The XX is a good platform, it could be a good UTV for those who don't go to the sand. It's too bad about the company.
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The XX works just fine in the sand.  Once the suspension is re-done the XX does really good in the desert and sand.  

 
Fullthrottleguy said:
You are making ALOT of assumptions that from my experience building companies and products just don't pan out.  An Accessories company does not have the same level engineering, permits, regulations, legal, and required overhead that a US based UTV manufacturer has. 

We won't know for a while, but I'll bet you a cold one in dunes that I am right. 

And @LOTD  thinks that Polaris and the Canned Ham partner company BRP (Canadian) have a lot of executive overhead and stupid people running the company... I think he would be surprised how lean they really are when you consider the volume those guys have to deal with. You actually need high powered over paid executives to get certain things external to the company done, like financial transactions, government regulators, banks, Investors, shareholders, and as sad as this is the Pedigree and Resume has to include MBA, 20 years CEO, CFO and or COO of multi Billion dollar company to get respect.  You and I might respect 40 years racing experience and took a Startup from 0 to $100m sales - that not mice-nuts to bankers at the level Speed wants to play at.

I am not saying there is not "fat" in those companies, there always is.  But, there is a lot to get done running a professional organization the Fiduciary responsibility alone means you hire $2,000 an hour accountants.   Outside the financial, sales marketing and of course Ops areas, I will bet the technical documentation the big three UTV makers supply to the dealers for each new car is literally 10 persons work for 6 months.  I have experience working with one of the major car companies and while their volumes are higher  all the same things are needed.  Supply chain is way more than Outsourcing the build to someone.  Managing components is a huge effort, just the supplier, the secondary alternative suppliers, all the part numbers and prices and changes to prints, instructions for replacement of components, its overwhelming

Fact matter ...

Accessory manufacturers have it easy - thats apples and oranges. This is near a $1B valuation company right away if RG does it right - thats huge scale.

Lets put it all in perspective ...  

CAN AM's parent company is a $6B company with 120,000+ employees  - 50% of the revenue comes from the US with over $700M coming from UTV sales in 2020 about $500M of that is the US .  the Industry is growing at a 5.5% CAGR so ... its getting bigger for everyone.

If Speed does 15,000 Cars in year 1  at and average of $35,000 per car (that may or may not be high thats'  $525M in sales  thats bigger than CAN AM's sales! Of course that top line revenue not profit.

Thats means out of the gate SPEED is Bigger the CAN AM Off Road ....

Let that soak in .... that would be amazing....

 BUT

You are not doing that scale with a handful of people ...  just training up the people to manage the outsourcing "right"  takes a couple years ... American industry already is facing Huge problems with this given Gen Z workers have average Tenures of 18 months compared to Millennial's and Boomers which are closer to 5-7 years.  We discuss this a lot in my CEO roundtable meetings, this is a huge problem for the country going forward.  They don't stay on the job long enough to learn how to be good at it and they like to move on and do "something else"

At Speed, There is only one RG and one Todd, and I don't see them hiring away top people from any of the good UTV companies, well at least its not in the industry rags or really talked about.  , Although I am certain RG know a few of those people having been "a consultant" and "accessory supplier" to them... and could get a few high level exec's to defect -  but this has to be done sooner rather tha  later - maybe he just does not have the funding or is too headstrong... I have no idea.

For RG noit hiring these people now is still outside looking in for them (and for me I admit)

Another telling fact is RG has said he thought he was gonna build 500 cars... and that would be a lot the first year ...He was surprised by the "success"

How you react to that success is telling as well.

An experienced  CEO of a company that ran other large org's when the "big numbers" hit would have built a team of industry experts to handle the growth  Just Like Elon Musk did ... Love or Hate Musk, the Man knows how to get Sh&t done... His hiring record pushed out some early people but he never missed a beat on GTM  (go to Market)  His model is a good one to follow 

I see a Bunch of "Joyner" like companies come and go - none have 1/10 the volume RG has already attracted. They all get it wrong, partially its just crap product, but mainly it's lack of support and infrastructure.  when you have 15,000 users out there you will get calls, warranty, issues, bad debt. law suits, etc.  

Its way more than just saying "anyone that disses' the company on social media or posts a picture of the bad door fit of crappy welds  gets their reservation number cancelled     or can never buy a car?  Can you see Can Am doing that??? No they would be sued, their CEO canned and all new management in place.    I have seen at least 50 Meme's of Canned Ham's Lawn darted  ... I have not heard BRP issue a statement they are hunting down the posters and barring them from buying cars.  This is just a crossing the Chasm from start up to professional org.

 I am sure RG is trying and confident, but given the failures of others before him and Todd, in companies  that had far more big company experience .. this is not as easy as you think it is ...

The deck is stacked against them.   His suppliers may be behind him, but they are business people and I do not believe he will make any money on at least the first years production  - no way.

He has a good flooring company helping with the cashflow on deposits  = but flooring costs money - if you have not dealt with that before think of it like paying that 3% credit card fee, bigger hit on the profit or lack of ...

Even successful start ups take years to break even.  If he ramps fast enough and has enough dry powder (working capital) to carry him through I can see a multiple $B cap in a few years... but he should have a good person doing the testing he is doing (lots of racers would it for free)  and he should be raising money - he is a good sales guy ....

Maybe he will raise a Ton of cash - and I hope he does - then Speed's future is secured.  I am not a smart person, but smart people tell me they "never" use their own money.  They say raise as much powder as they can when the brand is hot - the money is cheap, and you can always give it back if you don't need it,  but if you need it when you don't have it, it costs you lots of money...

Regarding Rivian

They are in fine shape .... they took down $10.7B in capital over the last 4 years YES 10.7 BILLION  = they got $2.5B  from Amazon, Ford and a consortium of 10 VC's and they pledged another $2B if the company needs it ... just last in October year.  They are burning cash with no product shipping (Like Robbie is) but they have lots of cash...

That scale is almost inconceivable compared to what SPEED has right now ....

They don't any sales for 3+ years  and they will be OK  - although the management will get "etch-a-sketched" before then  they are pretty safe not to "Tank" as you said. Some pretty smart people are not flushing 10B+ down the drain because a few orders got cancelled...

Don't get me wrong I have so much respect for the RG and TR - those guys are racers, businessmen and RG was always nice to me. But this is a Huge endeavor it's not rainbows and sunshine, more like blood letting before its all over ...
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RG does not seem like the type of person that gives up control easily.  Perhaps the goal is to hire a management team once production is full bore.  Who knows maybe he tried to bring some people on board and they were not interested. 

Todd is a smart cookie and knows the financial end.  Hopefully they have raised enough money to have a good size cash stash and can withstand the wait to turn a profit.  I can not imagine they are making any money on the cars that have in the locked in pricing.  Even the accessories they pre-sold might not have a big profit margin with the rising cost of supplies.   

Hopefully they can get the production going this month and get the ball rolling so there are Speed cars ready to go for next desert season.   

 
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Sand Shark said:
RG does not seem like the type of person that gives up control easily.  Perhaps the goal is to hirer a management team once production is full bore.  How knows maybe he tried to bring some people on board and they were not interested. 

Todd is a smart cookie and knows the financial end.  Hopefully they have raised enough money to have a good size cash stash and can withstand the wait to turn a profit.  I can not imagine they are making any money on the cars that have in the locked in pricing.  Even the accessories they pre-sold might not have a big profit margin with the rising cost of supplies.   

Hopefully they can get the production going this month and get the ball rolling so there are Speed cars ready to go for next desert season.   
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They are in an enviable albeit tough spot. Its generally easy to "get cheap money" when you have "receivables" on the books as long as you can show your receivables exceed the money you owe for production and components salaries, etc.  (aka profit),  but pre-production money is expensive. 

It's a fair gamble to keep overhead low and production cost low by limiting how much product you produce initially.  You basically stretch out production if you have no fear of cancellation and this lowers your cost per unit and allows you to "catch up"  at which time demand grows because you are delivering "some"

Its a textbook strategy and does not hurt quality or even reputation  - we call that "pedaling fast in first gear"

Where it does not work is when you have big commits with suppliers that based pricing on volume over a short time...  That usually has other consequences ...

I think you are gonna see this be a slinky from a delivery standpoint unless some announcement of Funding comes soon.

Overall I wish them the best - its good for us, the industry, and them

 
Lord of the Dunes said:
You don't think it's a little under powered for Glamis?
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We have two friends with a XX in our group.  The do just fine.  Although one of them just sold his to get a 4 seat SXS.  The other has a turbo XX that rips.   If we are getting after it in the big bowls and fast pace sweeping dunes the non-turbo XX is for sure working hard to keep up.  Just move him farther back in the back and all good. 

If you are in a pack of non-turbo cars or a group that cruises for the most part, they have plenty of power. 

 
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NIKAL said:
Depending on what your doing & what your description of power is? Compared to a Turbo UTV, probably. Compared to a V8 buggy, definitely. But compared to another N/A UTV, it’s probably better. The XX has 130hp compared to the RZR N/A at 110. If your trying to keep up with Turbo cars, or buggy’s, your probably going to feel underpowered. But a 130hp is not going to keep you from going everywhere. 
 

I remember talking to Sheldon Creed when he got his XX. I asked how’s it compared to his RZR? He had a N/A 1000 RZR. He said it was way better. It was a bit heavier, but the power was good and he could get through the pumps better, which meant more power to the ground, which is faster. 
 

Back in the day one of my grandfathers buggy’s was a Chenowth 2ld frame with a 1835, IRS, VW beam and desert tracks tires. Not even paddles. That thing went everywhere in the dunes and was no slouch. Sure compared to todays power that 95-100hp VW can’t get out of the way fast enough. But for what it was, it hauled butt. Those were fun simple times. 
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Fun is having a turbo SXS and chasing a high hp rail around the dunes with a person behind the wheel that can drive.  Good times chasing @Kat-A-Tonic around the dunes when he leads.  Our friend Brian picked up a new Funco last month.  1000hp in a Funco with a driver in a car that slides around so easily is a workout for a turbo SXS in the big sweeping dunes. 

 
I can't believe that Speed UTV is still in limbo in 2022.  Or maybe I  should say I can't believe that people are still waiting.  My feeling is that Can Am and Polaris have made great strides in upgrading their 2022 models, and to me this means Speed UTV is not as important any more.  I'm a fan of Robbie Gordon, so a big part of me is sad that it went down this way.

 
Sand Shark said:
Fun is having a turbo SXS and chasing a high hp rail around the dunes with a person behind the wheel that can drive.  Good times chasing @Kat-A-Tonic around the dunes when he leads.  Our friend Brian picked up a new Funco last month.  1000hp in a Funco with a driver in a car that slides around so easily is a workout for a turbo SXS in the big sweeping dunes. 
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Agreed. I’ve dunned with Dave and company a number of times. Much more of challenge now with my turbo Talon than it was in my sand car. 

 
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