Speed UTV

tjZ06 said:
It's an interesting situation, indeed.  I was/am one of the biggest proponents (fanbois?), as my posts in the pre-crash thread showed.  That said, I never expected or wanted a "mini trophy truck."  I just wanted a better SxS.  I still think we're going to get exactly that, but obviously the timeline was beyond optimistic.  I think it'll all end up about a year late, but for me at least, the delays will be worth it.  Things like completely changing clutch manufacturers, reworking power steering stuff, and a bunch of the other big changes that have added huge delays just wouldn't happen with other manufacturers.  But that's why you have issues like the 2021 RZRs having exploding primary clutches (literally) or the turbo oil-return line leak causing fires on the original (2016) Turbos.  

Whether or not they run out of money will be the real question, as you suggested.  I find it humorous all the FB-warriors that think this project is being funded by the deposit money, and that there'd be any remote chance of a surplus of money for Robby to "run off with" at this point.  Back of the napkin stuff, if he has 5,000 deposits at $1500 that's "only" $7.5M.  Anybody that knows anything about production knows $7.5M goes basically nowhere in building a team, engineering a product (particularly one so complicated with so many sub-systems) and putting it into production.  It's literally laughable that people think he's rolling around in deposit money.  Heck, even if you assume on average all of those 5,000 deposits spent $10k total including accessories (which we were required to pay for up front) that's still "only" $50M.  Now, fifty million dollars is a much better start, but still not remotely enough to get this thing done and is a way high estimate, and the accessory money was only collected recently. 

Anyway, the point is money is indeed the question.  I'm sure he has lots of private investment... but just how much?  They're a year behind schedule, so that's a year of salaries, facility costs etc. (and they bought that building in Havasu during that year).  
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From my past experience both in tech and some companies in the SEMA space, "private money" and "VC money" are there not to fully back the cost of production or even prototype beyond the headcount (people), they are there to give the 3rd party companies building the sub assemblies the "confidence" that the company is well funded and that They are excepted to "invest" by building prototypes and securing raw materials and extend credit lines in order to cover the "shortfall"  as you say $7.5M does not go very far.  while not on the same scale but you get the idea, Tesla was spending $800M a qtr. for 4 years trying to get the Model S to market AFTER having built the Roadster, and yes 600M of the 800M was Government incentives ... for a few years, but its still a huge investment. 

I am 100% certain they have two huge problems ... 1. the longer they don't ship the less confident the suppliers feel, and 2. the longer they don't ship the closer they get to loans being due and the smaller the TAM (total available market) get for the 3 year horizon, that is to say while the market is growing, the "hype"  of growth like a hockey stick is show to slow in the critical 3 year window.  All companies experience "early adopter" sales aka TJ Fan Boy types and we know for the Speed its a number - call it 5000 units, after that all companies experience the Chasm  - where consumers wait to see how the early adopters did before ordering  - this chasm grows wider that longer you wait from announce to ship (fact) - its only when companies "Cross the Chasm"  (crossing the chasm is a great marketing book by Geoff Moore) do they know what the real product run rate is  - every investor know this too -  - if the Chasm is too big Investors get cold feet and funding dries up even though the product took off like lightning. 

The other factor to consider is that ALL the other SxS makers if they see this product doing well will "virtual band together" and use their market positions to kill it .. and they have the advantage of having LOTS of profit to invest, lots of loyalty (even though they have lots of problems)  to show the Speed warts ... and slow the progress enough to starve the company out.

Most good product companies fail due to lack of working capital, not good products.  The bigger issue is the Robbie is builder not a profit oriented CEO and definitely not a Product manager (easy tell by his presentations).   No one wants him to succeed more than me, but I have been "that product guy" brought in to fix these issues so many times I can see the path they are going down and they are almost at the critical breaking point. ...

 
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Funny, I had to read "Crossing the Chasm" when I started at my current company, ~13 years ago.  Not sure we made it yet...

-TJ
 

 
tjZ06 said:
IDK, Polaris (remember, I'm a RZR owner and like RZRs, not just hating here) still managed to put out a bunch of Turbos and Pros with exploding primary clutches.  And shoot, that's after over a decade of making RZRs, and decades longer making various CVT machines.  Clearly they're not doing what Speed/RG is doing in terms of R&D and changing vendors when needed.  

-TJ
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I too owned a RZR and was very happy with it.

The clutching is a Team Industry issue.  Something went wrong between testing the clutches to when they were mass produced.  From what I read it appear to be a casting issue where they bored some holes.  Where Polaris continues to purposely screw up is in the bearing used in the transmission.  How many transmissions have they fixed under warranty because of bearing failure?  Spend the extra money for the good stuff. 

I would disagree on Polaris or any other manufacture not doing what Speed is doing in terms of R&D.   The difference is Speed can not afford any major failures or they will be sunk once the car is in production.   The other manufactures can afford to have issues pop up and get them remedied.  Yes a pain in the ass for the consumer, but no different then when you get recalls on your car or truck. 

Still pretty damn impressive the products the manufactures put out and what we the consumer can put them through.  

 
Fullthrottleguy said:
From my past experience both in tech and some companies in the SEMA space, "private money" and "VC money" are there not to fully back the cost of production or even prototype beyond the headcount (people), they are there to give the 3rd party companies building the sub assemblies the "confidence" that the company is well funded and that They are excepted to "invest" by building prototypes and securing raw materials and extend credit lines in order to cover the "shortfall"  as you say $7.5M does not go very far.  while not on the same scale but you get the idea, Tesla was spending $800M a qtr. for 4 years trying to get the Model S to market AFTER having built the Roadster, and yes 600M of the 800M was Government incentives ... for a few years, but its still a huge investment. 

I am 100% certain they have two huge problems ... 1. the longer thy don't ship the less confident the suppliers feel, and 2. the longer they don't ship the closer they get to loans being due and the smaller the TAM (total available market) get fo the 3 year horizon, that is to say while the market is growing, the "hype"  of growth like a hockey stick is show to slow in the critical 3 year window.  All companies experience "early adopter" sales aka TJ Fan Boy types and we know for the Speed its a number - call it 5000 units, after that all companies experience the Chasm  - where consumers wait to see how the early adopters did before ordering  - this chasm grows wider that longer you wait from announce to ship (fact) - its only when companies "Cross the Chasm"  (crossing the chasm is a great marketing book by Geoff Moore) do they know what the real product run rate is  - every investor know this too -  - if the Chasm is too big Investors get cold feet and funding dries up even though the product took off like lightning. 

The other factor to consider is that ALL the other SxS makers if they see this product doing well will "virtual band together" and use their market positions to kill it .. and they have the advantage of having LOTS of profit to invest, lots of loyalty (even though they have lots of problems)  to show the Speed warts ... and slow the progress enough to starve the company out.

Most good product companies fail due to lack of working capital, not good products.  The bigger issue is the Robbie is builder not a profit oriented CEO and definitely not a Product manager (easy tell by his presentations).   No one wants him to succeed more than me, but I have been "that product guy" brought in to fix these issues so many times I can see the path they are going down and they are almost at the critical breaking point. ...
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Interesting stuff.   Robby does have his partner Todd Romano, who is a business guy.  

 
Presentation whatever number got moved to tomorrow. Should be an interesting one. Wonder what kind of mood he’ll be in by then. 😅 Hopefully he calmed down and is refocused. 

 
I cant wait for the carbon fiber push to talk button! When will that be available?

 
oh! I didn't realize the carbon fiber panel are only an option on th RC car....

 
Not much excitement with last nights show.  

More show and tell of some parts.   Turbo/manifold looked cool.  

 
buff said:
oh! I didn't realize the carbon fiber panel are only an option on th RC car....
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Other than the seats, RG/Speed never was claiming CF parts on the car... 

-TJ

 
tjZ06 said:
I think he's established he's annoying at best. 

-TJ
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LOL!   So are you thinking the 10 pre-production cars will be off the line by August at the earliest?    

 
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