Tariffs

Realbadlarry said:
Gas prices in CA have very little to do with crude oil prices. Now, they will raise them when crude raises, but they will not lower them. Refinery shut downs, blends, additives, those all drive up our prices. You can thank Liberal Progressive Democrats for gas prices in CA....they own it.
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stephenheins.substack.com

“California’s Dangerous Path: Oil Refinery Takeovers and the Coming Supply Crisis” By Charles Rotter

“California’s energy policies have been walking a tightrope for years, but now, the state is contemplating an extreme measure that could tip into full-blown crisis mode: taking over oil refineries.”
stephenheins.substack.com stephenheins.substack.com

The Phillips refineries in Wilmington and Carson are shutting down soon. Combine that with talks of state takeover of refineries... Yeah. We fucked.
 
I hope Zelden can eliminate the "boutique fuel" bullshit mandated by various states and counties. Other than adjusting RVP/wax point for temperature regionally, all fuel should be one standard nationwide.
 
So now the tariffs are off again? I can't keep up with the stable genius. No one is ever going believe his bluffs anymore. What whipsaw
 
DeepBusch69 said:
So now the tariffs are off again? I can't keep up with the stable genius. No one is ever going believe his bluffs anymore. What whipsaw
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He must of finally listened to the advisors that told him he was going to put the country into a recession and tank the stock market with widespread tariffs versus smartly placed ones. Hence why China is not part of the 90 day hold.
 
Sand Shark said:
He must of finally listened to the advisors that told him he was going to put the country into a recession and tank the stock market with widespread tariffs versus smartly placed ones. Hence why China is not part of the 90 day hold.
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Lol

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I'm sure other countries are feeling that Trump holds a strong hand and they definitely need to accede to his terms.
 
Trump did not cave in. The 10% across the board tariff still stands for 90 days while negotiations are done for those countries that agreed to have talks on trade. IIRC, US tariffs on most countries were about 2.5% prior to Trump starting this initiative. Countries that retaliate or refuse to negotiate will pay a higher tariff rate. That is not a cave.

And you cannot use a single reference point such as the stock markets to determine if a recession is looming. The markets are reacting to headlines which is creating the volatility we are seeing. The real threat this week to the economy was the Treasury auctions and the sell off of foreign owned debt. The auctions seemed to go well but Japan started dumping treasury bonds this week driving up yields and causing uncertainty in the bond markets, and that could have a very negative effect on the economy. I don't fully understand the bond markets, I just read that the impact of our debt being dumped can be disastrous for the economy.

Did Trump take it to the edge before today's announcement, or did he just get lucky? A lot smarter people than me know the answer to that.
 
I'm glad Trump's going hard on China, but I'm reading they'll get around it through proxies, and they hold a lot of our debt. They're not toothless... They're not stupid...

I hope Trump's next plan is to unveil a huge infrastructure bill because we're so lacking. I was just reading that China put the brakes on rare earths that are critical for our batteries, ammunition, electronics,etc.
We have the ability and resources but not the infrastructure to do it ourselves..
 
THD said:
Trump did not cave in. The 10% across the board tariff still stands for 90 days while negotiations are done for those countries that agreed to have talks on trade. IIRC, US tariffs on most countries were about 2.5% prior to Trump starting this initiative. Countries that retaliate or refuse to negotiate will pay a higher tariff rate. That is not a cave.

And you cannot use a single reference point such as the stock markets to determine if a recession is looming. The markets are reacting to headlines which is creating the volatility we are seeing. The real threat this week to the economy was the Treasury auctions and the sell off of foreign owned debt. The auctions seemed to go well but Japan started dumping treasury bonds this week driving up yields and causing uncertainty in the bond markets, and that could have a very negative effect on the economy. I don't fully understand the bond markets, I just read that the impact of our debt being dumped can be disastrous for the economy.

Did Trump take it to the edge before today's announcement, or did he just get lucky? A lot smarter people than me know the answer to that.
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Yep, it was the bond market issues that caused Trump to chill out at least a little. Not only are bonds being dumped, but the most recent bond auction saw little interest from investors. This is exactly opposite what should have happened given recent stock declines. This is a huge red flag that we are headed for troubled waters. I don't his reversal yesterday is going to be enough and you can see that in after hours trading and what today's market open is going to look like.
The war with China is going to be difficult. China has greatly diversified it's exports after the 08 crash and I believe they are down to like 3% going to the US. I fear they are in better position to fight this trade war with them than we are unfortunately.
 
Dockmaster said:
Yep, it was the bond market issues that caused Trump to chill out at least a little. Not only are bonds being dumped, but the most recent bond auction saw little interest from investors. This is exactly opposite what should have happened given recent stock declines. This is a huge red flag that we are headed for troubled waters. I don't his reversal yesterday is going to be enough and you can see that in after hours trading and what today's market open is going to look like.
The war with China is going to be difficult. China has greatly diversified it's exports after the 08 crash and I believe they are down to like 3% going to the US. I fear they are in better position to fight this trade war with them than we are unfortunately.
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Well that's good news, if ONLY 3% of our shit comes from China, then tariffs are really not that big a deal on China..... it's all market manipulation. If you think it's anything else, your wrong. Employment is up, inflation is down and yet the markets crash? Almost as if people WANT it to crash. The Swamp is deep and it is fighting for it's life. Rule out NOTHING. Doge is finding their billions and they are not happy about it.
 
Realbadlarry said:
Well that's good news, if ONLY 3% of our shit comes from China, then tariffs are really not that big a deal on China..... it's all market manipulation. If you think it's anything else, your wrong. Employment is up, inflation is down and yet the markets crash? Almost as if people WANT it to crash. The Swamp is deep and it is fighting for it's life. Rule out NOTHING. Doge is finding their billions and they are not happy about it.
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Nope, it's not that 3% of our stuff comes from China. It's that only 3% of China's exports go to the US. In other words. they are only sending us 3% of their stuff that goes out of their country.
 
One of the most overlooked of items coming from China is Telecom, Datacenter, AI and Cloud hardware comes from China and now has a 125% increase on cost. All of these companies that are looking to do any kind of upgrade/buildout is going to come in at a significantly higher cost. All of that equipment that your internet runs on, from China, that Cloud where all your pictures are, comes from China. I would expect the internet bills to start going up plus anything that comes from China will increase significantly.
 
Realbadlarry said:
Well that's good news, if ONLY 3% of our shit comes from China, then tariffs are really not that big a deal on China..... it's all market manipulation. If you think it's anything else, you’re wrong. Employment is up, inflation is down and yet the markets crash? Almost as if people WANT it to crash. The Swamp is deep and it is fighting for its life. Rule out NOTHING. Doge is finding their billions and they are not happy about it.
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It appears to be more than 3%:

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The trade war with China when we do not have the manufacturing set up and the manpower in place is not going to be pretty.
 
Sand Shark said:
The trade war with China when we do not have the manufacturing set up and the manpower in place is not going to be pretty.
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You are right.....We should just roll over and piss on ourselves....instead of doing what is right. We need Neville Chamberlain negotiating instead of Trump.
 
Sand Shark said:
The trade war with China when we do not have the manufacturing set up and the manpower in place is not going to be pretty.
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It will get worse before it gets better...

America can not be sustained on Tech & retail sales.

Increasing the value of the American worker will drive salaries of middle class America.

It seems like in the past 10 years the go to startup business is find a product on Alibaba mark it up 1000% hire a company or a few people to fulfill orders...

Bring back the days of Americans making cool shit & get rid of this consumer society
 
Realbadlarry said:
You are right.....We should just roll over and piss on ourselves....instead of doing what is right. We need Neville Chamberlain negotiating instead of Trump.
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I am not saying to rollover. We would be in a much better power position if we had manufacturing and manpower in place.

Chip manufacturing we are in the process of getting set up. Lots of construction for chip manufacturing going on in Phoenix.
 
parker@gearone said:
It will get worse before it gets better...

America can not be sustained on Tech & retail sales.

Increasing the value of the American worker will drive salaries of middle class America.

It seems like in the past 10 years the go to startup business is find a product on Alibaba mark it up 1000% hire a company or a few people to fulfill orders...

Bring back the days of Americans making cool shit & get rid of this consumer society
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Amen.
 
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