Contractors/Business Owners: thoughts about economy in '24?

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I feel that small business owners really 'feel' the heartbeat of the economy better than Wall Street 'experts'.  With that said; any contractors/small business owners on here and if so; thoughts on economy now and into '24?

I spoke to two friends (one high-end detail guy in Nor CA) and other a decently large HVAC contractor (again Nor CA) and both said the phones basically stopped ringing a couple months ago.  Maybe higher interest rates finally crippling the consumer?  I am a heavy-equipment/grading contractor and my work has not slowed down (yet); but customers are getting more price conscious and paying later......

 
In my business, (plastics and fiberglass)  it has slowed down a little bit in December,  But this was pretty normal before Covid. The last 3 years really have not been normal, so I guess I'm seeing a market correction of sorts.  While the money is down a bit, I have great receivables in contrast for the next month and I have bid on some pretty large jobs for 2024 (some have already kicked off)  I think the trick to navigating the current market , at least for me, has been diversity. We are in so many different markets right now, that we shift based on the trends of today and what's coming. 

 
i can speak for the grocery business, we are a wholesaler and supply over 350 stores/chains in midwest. In my group alone I think we will see at least 10-15 independent grocers close down in 2024. this holiday season has been slim pickens and sales have been down. Even my stores that are largely food stamp stores were down the first 10 days of dec when usually they are out spending it all like crazy. 

 
I have a small construction company in northern Nevada we build pole buildings I’m being cautious we Are booked till  April but generally we would be booked into August 

 
Back to normal.  May have to adjust head count to stay profitable and will absolutely need to be spot on with quotes and timelines. 

Customers are shopping again and it's not any less expensive to run a business in California.

Remember, it's not the cost per hour the customer should be concerned about,  it's the efficiency of the person doing the job that counts. 

 
Justdirt said:
I have a small construction company in northern Nevada we build pole buildings I’m being cautious we Are booked till  April but generally we would be booked into August 
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How's my lowrider truck treating you?   I kind of miss it!   It was fun to drive!  

 
I killed it ‘21 and ‘22, but ‘23 is DEAD!!

I don’t know what is happening, but it isn’t fun. I’d hate to pull from my stash, hoping’24 turns around.:. 
 

I don’t want to burn chit….

abc

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In the civil aircraft industry we are seeing a massive buyout by investment groups. All of the mills that produce mil spec 321 stainless have been bought by soros and his group. We were notified about a year ago that they would no longer take orders from companies that do less than 250k/year purchases from them. We’ve banded together with the two other small companies in the us and we buy 250k of material and they buy it from us. 
Reasons this sucks. The 4 large companies were all purchased and are now 1 company. 2 of the companies were completely shut down, tooling destroyed, employees fired. The other 2 operate under the same name and have doubled their pricing. There are now just a handful of us left worldwide and all the manufacturing ability and knowhow is quickly disappearing. Its already been impossible to hire anyone competent in the past 10 years, looks like that will get worse. 
business is booming. We have a full schedule for january already, but there are shortages everywhere in the industry, from clamps, engine components (one of the big engine manufacturers has been bought out by a chinese firm) materials to hardware and consumables.

look to see this in other industries. With the interest high groups are sinking capitol into farmland, land, metal and wood mills, processing plants, etc. if something bad happens this may the nail in the coffin of America’s manufacturing might.

anyone else seeing these investment groups in their industries?

 
Sausage450r said:
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anyone else seeing these investment groups in their industries?
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Real estate, but that's been going on for a while. But now investment groups account for something like 40% of the single family home sales.

Pest control is becoming a monopoly. Your choice soon will be one of two giant company's or a small mom and pop, no in between.

 
LegitDuner said:
Real estate, but that's been going on for a while. But now investment groups account for something like 40% of the single family home sales.

Pest control is becoming a monopoly. Your choice soon will be one of two giant company's or a small mom and pop, no in between.
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Im tellin everyone; its the grand plan. They are slowly putting us all out of business (little guy) with regulations and moves by the fed. You keep asking why these aholes left and right keep giving away our money and printing more; its a takeover of our economy. Parallel that with the insurance markets volatility and medical rights, bureaucratic regulation, welfare and we are voting our way into slavery. Only the select few will rule while we all beg the govt for more bread  

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Sausage450r said:
In the civil aircraft industry we are seeing a massive buyout by investment groups. All of the mills that produce mil spec 321 stainless have been bought by soros and his group. We were notified about a year ago that they would no longer take orders from companies that do less than 250k/year purchases from them. We’ve banded together with the two other small companies in the us and we buy 250k of material and they buy it from us. 
Reasons this sucks. The 4 large companies were all purchased and are now 1 company. 2 of the companies were completely shut down, tooling destroyed, employees fired. The other 2 operate under the same name and have doubled their pricing. There are now just a handful of us left worldwide and all the manufacturing ability and knowhow is quickly disappearing. Its already been impossible to hire anyone competent in the past 10 years, looks like that will get worse. 
business is booming. We have a full schedule for january already, but there are shortages everywhere in the industry, from clamps, engine components (one of the big engine manufacturers has been bought out by a chinese firm) materials to hardware and consumables.

look to see this in other industries. With the interest high groups are sinking capitol into farmland, land, metal and wood mills, processing plants, etc. if something bad happens this may the nail in the coffin of America’s manufacturing might.

anyone else seeing these investment groups in their industries?
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Hey I thought your new kid was pretty decent! 😆

 
Electrical contractor here.  Biggest problem I see is building is going to come to a screeching halt.  I have back orders for equipment that is over a year out. So if I start your new Brakemasters or 100,000 Sq ft warehouse today your looking at around 60-80 weeks for me to get the Main Service Section without that you don't get a meter and the big three are not going to increase production any time soon. 

 
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MWB said:
Electrical contractor here.  Biggest problem I see is building is going to come to a screeching halt.  I have back orders for equipment that is over a year out. So if I start your new Brakemasters or 100,000 Sq ft warehouse today your looking at around 60-80 weeks for me to get the Main Service Section without that you don't get a meter and the big three are not going to increase production any time soon. 
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So true, I had some switch gear that was due mid December pushed back to Sept. :(

 
Justdirt said:
I have a small construction company in northern Nevada we build pole buildings I’m being cautious we Are booked till  April but generally we would be booked into August 
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let me know when you want to build one in Idaho.

sales have been falling since 2020.  last year we were 45% down and if I didn't have leftover inventory I might not have opened this year.  This season we are down 50% from last year.  already talking about closing doors after this season with my crew.  I started my backup plans years ago and is a few years behind.  I can't wait for this year to be over.  Most of the business owners in my town are all down that I know. So are still good but down.  After 22 years at the same spot I knew this day would come but a little tough to see all those years just closed up.  

 
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Bobalos said:
YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!  that is kind of scary.  actually its a lot of scary............
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Well you know what they say about statistics. Some I read are high 20%, some low 40%. But the point is they are grabbing up single family homes. I bet they're frothing at the mouth waiting on some kind of real estate bust so they can swoop in on them like they did before. I don't think we'll ever have a bust like we did before but who knows.

 
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a guy i work for on the side has been buying up single family homes, and is self financing. Mostly hispanics are buying with large cash deposits down. owner finance, they take it as is and hasn't had one default yet. 

hell they are all tradesmen, i've seen them brick houses, do ornamental iron fences, completely rehab the insides, so he figures worst case i get it back in better shape than i sold it lol.

he has quite a few. they can't qualify any other way, but always have large cash for the down.

i think he's getting 25-30k down cash, 

 
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